The Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) for the east coast gas market in Australia examines gas adequacy over a 20-year period. The report identifies potential gas supply gaps against forecast demand so that investors and governments can make informed and timely investment and policy decisions. The GSOO provides forecasts of gas use for residential, commercial and industrial sectors, gas-powered generation for the National Electricity Market (NEM) and Northern Territory, considering advised export positions for LNG producers in Queensland.

Key findings

• The outlook shows improved near-term supply conditions, with risks of extreme peak-day shortfalls in southern Australia now expected to emerge a year later than previously forecast. 
• Total gas consumption is forecast to decline as households, businesses and industry electrify, reducing their reliance on gas.
• In the NEM, gas‑powered generation demand is expected to fall below previous forecasts, driven by around 30 gigawatts of battery storage under development and the delayed retirement of the Eraring Power Station.
• While significant renewable and battery developments are expected in the NEM, gas-powered generation will continue to play a key role during winter peak demand periods.
• Despite improved peak-day supply expectations, gas production from legacy fields in southern states are forecast to decline by 46% over the next five years. This will require new investments to address emerging supply gaps from 2030 under most weather conditions.