Australia’s natural gas sector has transformed dramatically between 1975 and 2025. This paper outlines how Australia’s looming gas shortages are largely the product of political decisions that have stalled investment, restricted exploration and driven up energy prices. The paper argues that the very policies intended to protect consumers have made the situation worse.

With the east coast facing forecast shortfalls from 2027–28, the paper warns that Australia risks higher household bills, industrial decline and unreliable electricity as coal generation retires.

The paper demonstrates that unless Australia recalibrates its approach, the nation faces a dual challenge: structurally higher energy costs undermining industrial competitiveness and insufficient firming capacity to secure the renewable transition. Avoiding this scenario requires a deliberate reset of policy settings.

Key recommendations

• Lifting bans and moratoria on onshore gas exploration, including coal seam gas and fracking.
• Streamlining approval processes to reduce delays and costs.
• Introducing a stable domestic gas reservation for future east coast projects.
• Planning strategic infrastructure, including pipelines and storage.
• Recognising gas as a vital transition fuel to complement renewables.