At the 2025 House of Representatives Election the number of Australians allocating their primary vote to candidates from the Liberal and National Parties (including their associated state and territory parties) hit a historic low of 31.8%. Unlike Labor, whose declining vote share has historically flowed back through the Greens, the Coalition cannot win elections from such a low primary vote base.

This analysis – based on results of a YouGov survey – finds that correcting this issue will be extremely difficult if the Coalition’s current policy approach and public perceptions of this approach continue.

Key findings

• The Coalition has extremely limited opportunity to increase its primary vote among those who would currently consider voting for one of its candidates.
• Ex-Coalition voters perceive the Coalition as out of touch.
• There are clear opportunities to redress these shortcomings through better policy.
• Climate change is a key threshold issue for voters.
• The Coalition is only appealing to a narrow slice of the electorate.