A whole-of-economy analysis demonstrates the implied costs of the Federal Coalition’s nuclear plan run well into the trillions of dollars – ranging from $4.3 to $5.2 trillion by 2050.

The Coalition’s nuclear policy was released alongside modelling by Frontier Economics (see related information below), which the Coalition continues to cite to defend its policy position. This modelling is predicated on advocating for an energy pathway (“Progressive Change”) that differs dramatically to the energy pathway (“Step Change”) deemed most likely by the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Integrated System Plan (ISP) and consistently advocated for by the Labor Government. 

To date, both the Coalition’s and the Government’s estimates of the price tag of building a nuclear industry in Australia restrict their analyses largely to costs incurred in the energy system itself. However, a redirection from a Step Change to a Nuclear Progressive Change energy scenario would, by necessity, impose many further flow-on costs to the Australian economy.

This analysis of the whole-of-economy implications of the nuclear pathway modelled by Frontier Economics and cited by the Federal Coalition to defend its nuclear policy reveals a hollowing out of Australian industry, permanently higher energy costs, higher costs from unabated carbon pollution and trillions of dollars in lost GDP.