Required under the NDIS Act, this report provides an annual assessment of the financial sustainability of the NDIS. The report projects future scheme expenses and includes an analysis of participant outcomes, investment effectiveness and risks to the scheme's sustainability. 

These projections take into account factors such as the number of participants, average payments per participant, inflation and the impact of recent and proposed reforms. The report also examines the effectiveness of the NDIS in achieving its objectives of supporting people with disability to live independently and participate in the community.

The report determined eight strategic risks for 2024-25, finding the largest contributor to risk is growth in payments. The authors also note significant uncertainty in the current projections, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and analysis. 

Key findings

• The total projected expenses for 2024-25 are estimated at $46,442 million, increasing to $91,867 million in 2033-34.
• Sustained high levels of additional growth in average payments remain a critical sustainability pressure for the scheme.
• There is considerable uncertainty in the projections, with actual scheme expenses potentially varying significantly.
• The main driver of the increase in scheme participation rate is autism, partially offset by a decrease in the rate for developmental delay.
• Perceptions of the scheme are increasingly positive, with participants and their families/carers more likely to report that the scheme had helped them in various areas of their lives.

Recommendations

1. Continue investing in data assets and the quality of data collected to enable a deeper analysis of participant needs and improve decision making.
2. Develop a projections model roadmap to define the different forecasting models used to project scheme participants and expenses.