Much of this year’s Budget was already ‘old news’ by the time the Treasurer stood to address Parliament at 7:30 last night. His speech confirmed many measures which had been selectively leaked to journalists: the small business measures, the Google tax Mk II, the increase to the top of the 32.5% income tax bracket, for example. 

But a few well-placed rumours turned out not to be true: we did not see the threatened reduction to the 60:40 safe harbour for the thin capitalisation rules. 

Of course, the Treasurer had kept a few surprises up his sleeve: the idea of a lifetime cap on non-concessional contributions to super funds was not foreshadowed. 

And some measures we feared had been lost forever re-appeared such as the Board of Taxation’s work on consolidation and Islamic finance. 

While all Budget announcements are to some extent mere declarations of intent, this year’s promises are more problematic than usual. Clearly, no government can meaningfully promise what the corporate tax rate will be in 2026. But even for measures with a more immediate start, it will be interesting to see how many matters can be enacted by the time Parliament is dissolved, expected later this week. The ALP has already let it be known that it will wait to see the detail before deciding whether to support particular Budget measures. And the Prime Minister would be brave to assume the support of all cross-bench Senators in the current environment.