An exploration of how Australia’s population is changing and what the future might look like. Australia’s population passed 27.5 million in 2025. By 2035–36, it is projected to grow to 31.5 million. Population growth is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2025–26. This largely reflects falling net overseas migration and fertility rates. The report includes sections on ageing, life expectancy and mortality, and new experimental 40-year projections for states and territories, capital cities and regional areas.

Key findings

• Migration trends: net overseas migration has fallen since its peak in 2022–23. In 2025–26, net overseas migration is forecast to be 260,000. Fewer temporary migrants, particularly on student and visitor visas, are arriving. Migration is returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic patterns.
• Fertility rates: in 2025–26, the total fertility rate is expected to fall to a record low of 1.42 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Fertility intentions in Australia have also been falling since 2001, but they remain above the total fertility rate.
• State and territory, capital city and regional projections: capital cities are projected to grow nearly twice as fast as rest-of-state areas. Western Australia is expected to be Australia’s fastest growing state or territory in the coming years, while Tasmania will remain the slowest growing.