The report assesses the global economic situation finding it remains resilient despite recent shocks such as the pandemic and energy crisis. The report recommends policymakers consolidate public finances, continue monetary policy easing, and address structural labour shortages to support economic growth and living standards.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic situation, including recent developments, projections, and risks. It also presents detailed analyses of labour market shortages, examining the structural forces at play. The report offers insights into the intensity and nature of these shortages, their connection to digitalization and the green transition, and their variations across firms based on age, productivity, and working conditions. The analysis is informed by the OECD's Employer Survey of the Global Forum on Productivity, providing data from 34 OECD countries, along with Brazil and South Africa.

Key findings

• Global GDP growth is projected to strengthen slightly to 3.3% in 2025 and remain stable at this level through 2026.
• Inflation in the G20 countries is expected to decline further and, by the end of 2025 or early 2026, be back to target in almost all remaining major economies.
• Despite some easing in labour markets, labour and skill shortages remain at very high levels.
• Tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. 

Key recommendations

• Consolidate public finances, particularly in countries with high debt burdens.
• Continue easing monetary policy where appropriate, while remaining vigilant about inflation and exchange rates.
• Address structural labour shortages through:
  • education and training policies to align skills with demand
  • reforms to improve working conditions and attract workers to sectors with shortages
  • measures to support labour market participation, including for women, older workers, and migrants