Significant growth in renewable energy generation has already delivered substantial emissions reductions, avoiding over 200 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions between 2015 and 2023. This report predicts this trend will continue and that while challenges remain to achieving Australia's 82% renewable energy target by 2030, the progress towards decarbonising the electricity sector offers a positive example of climate action and its economic benefits. 

The report looks at what changes have reduced emissions since 2015 and what would have happened in their absence, along with the projected outcomes of current and likely projects. It also looks at the likely future benefits if Australia does reach it's goal of 82% renewables by 2030, noting that decarbonising the electricity sector is not only important because it represents the largest source of emissions in the Australian economy but because it enables decarbonisation of other sectors currently reliant on oil and gas, including transport, buildings and industries.

Key findings

• The emissions intensity of Australia’s electricity sector has fallen significantly over the past decade due to renewable energy investments.  
• Since 2015 the share of renewables in the energy system climbing from 16 per cent to just shy of 40 per cent in 2023.  
• This investment has resulted in emissions being 30 per cent lower today than they would have otherwise been without the renewable energy investment since 2015. 
• By 2025, it is expected that renewable generation will be more than three times greater than it was in 2015, accounting for a 48 per cent share of Australia’s electricity supply. 
• If Australia achieves its 82 per cent renewable energy target by 2030, the total emissions saving between 2015 and 2030 is expected to reach 998 million tonnes.