The analysis and projections contained in this report are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system.

Policymakers worldwide are under pressure to revive improvements in living standards and ensure their economies flourish amid ongoing structural changes that present both opportunities and challenges. In this context, it is critical to implement policies and reforms that boost labor participation and facilitate the reallocation of labor and capital to high-productivity firms and growing sectors. Historically, gaining the necessary social and political support to enact and sustain these policies and reforms has been a formidable challenge.

Key findings

• Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming. However, notable revisions have taken place beneath the surface since April 2024, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies, in particular, the largest European countries.
• In emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa.
• These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth, a trend supported by substantial public investment in China and India.
• Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1 percent—a mediocre performance compared with the prepandemic average.