Antarctica is often overlooked in strategic discussions, but its role in geopolitical competition deserves attention.

This report assesses the continent's importance to Australian security, China’s hybrid Antarctic activity, and the need for Australia to develop a balancing strategy capable of bolstering the Antarctic Treaty and ‘pushing back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica.

Antarctica offers significant strategic advantages for the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although Beijing's actions in Antarctica may not overtly violate the Antarctic Treaty (AT), they effectively undermine its principles and, by extension, Australia's strategic interests. Currently, the PRC is adeptly navigating the AT System to challenge the status quo without explicitly breaching the treaty.

China's domestic policies, which merge civil and military sectors, appear to contravene the spirit of the AT's military prohibitions, even if they have not yet resulted in direct military activity on the continent. This evolving dynamic underscores the pressing need for Australia to safeguard the existing Antarctic status quo.

Policy recommendations

• With robust Australian foreign and security prioritization, the AT can counter Beijing's growing ambitions, which may directly impact Australian interests. We must protect and uphold the principles of the AT.

• With diverse domestic and international priorities, Australia must not neglect Antarctica, as Beijing continues to exploit the strategic gap left by our limited focus. Australia, with its rich history and commitment to Antarctica, must assert its role as an Antarctic claimant and clarify that China's presence is contingent on Australian and other claimants' cooperation. It's time for Australia to lead in Antarctica and protect our strategic interests.

• Beijing can (and does) destabilise the situation on the Antarctic continent within the existing rules. Any solution must begin with an acknowledgement of that reality. A health check of the continent is required, starting with a clear-eyed assessment of contemporary PRC Antarctic strategy.

• Australia, and like-minded partners, should develop a toolkit to adequately counter and mitigate the PRC’s erosive efforts to rewrite Antarctica’s future. Capabilities are a critical component of any toolkit, as they ensure the ability to adequately monitor Beijing’s Antarctic activity. Investment in polar capabilities and the sustainment of physical presence through revitalised Antarctic research bases and a competitive scientific research agenda are priority areas of action.

• Diplomacy is a vital requirement of our Antarctic toolkit. Simply put, the continuance of the status quo in Antarctica is a shared interest for all parties. Though without any checks and balances, Beijing will continue to use the existing rules and a lack of interest from nations like Australia to change the status quo. Australia must work to remind Beijing (both privately in detail as well as in public to ensure the Australian public are aware of the issue and priority) of the spirit and obligations of the Antarctic Treaty. We need a delicate balancing strategy that bolsters the arrangements facilitated by the treaty and a robust ability to ‘push back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica. While armed conflict is unlikely, make no mistake: Australia’s Antarctic interests and the treaty arrangements are squarely under threat.