The New Zealand Government has committed to net zero emissions by 2050 and a 50 percent reduction of gross emissions by 2030. However, New Zealand is behind the curve when it comes to reviewing the impact of its policies on the environment and behind our targets. Each Budget that fails to shift the dial closer to the Paris Agreement target trajectory will mean that successive governments will have to do more, which will result in a more rapid and expensive transition.

Using a framework adapted from international assessment standards, NZIER researchers found there was a minimal emphasis on environmental outcomes throughout Budget 2024 in terms of new initiatives; the majority have a neutral or unfavourable impact on emissions, with one having a positive outcome.

Key findings:

• Budget 24 does not support New Zealand making progress on moving from the status quo to the level of emissions we are committed to and effectively defers the challenges of transitioning to future years.
• New Zealand is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement commitments. The reduction in emissions required to meet our commitments will grow every year.
• Better reporting requirements would help incentivise more transparent action on meeting our international commitments.