The Australian Indigenous imprisonment rate is currently 16.7 times the non-Indigenous imprisonment rate. The leading proximate cause of this over-representation is a high rate of Indigenous arrest.

In this report, the authors develop and test a model of Indigenous arrest in which the primary drivers of risk are substance use, stress and trauma, adverse social environment, exposure to arrest, human/economic/social capital, and state/territory of residence. They test the model using data from the 2014–15 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey. The strongest risk factors are alcohol and other drug use and having a high or very high level of psychological distress. The strongest protective factors are completing school, having an income in the top four deciles, and having a permanent home.