This paper explores the strategic challenges confronting Australia as shifting power balances in Asia produce new calculations among the region's major powers.

Building on Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute's major report on Asian Security Futures, Raoul Heinrichs argues that while US primacy or a 'concert of Asia' are the most preferable futures for Australia, a competitive balance of power is the most likely.

Between new risks for Canberra of being dragged into competition and old fears of being left to fend for itself, Mr Heinrichs recommends a major build-up of Australia's independent strategic weight, and reduced reliance on the United States, as a hedge against the most serious dangers arising from Asia's transition.