The Disability Support Pension (DSP) is an income support payment to individuals with permanent physical, intellectual or psychiatric impairments that prevent them from engaging in employment.  It is one of the largest programs of Australian government spending.  In 2016–17, DSP expenditure was $16.3 billion (10.6 per cent of social security spending) and there were around 760,000 DSP recipients.

This report examines the factors underlying the recent decline in DSP expenditure, highlighting the impacts of changes in government policy. It also projects a significant rebound in new DSP recipients and analyses a number of scenarios with alternative recipient projections to determine medium-term projections.